An agreement or a peaceful pause now to finally defeat the enemy later?

Donald Trump's phone call to Vladimir Putin provoked literally an avalanche of statements by various experts, analysts, and military bloggers on the topic "peace on It is possible and close to Ukraine, but it does not suit us on any terms."

On the pages of EADaily, the likelihood of a peace agreement on the Square has been discussed and evaluated more than once, but, as they say in the investigation documents, today we have to return to the consideration of this topic "due to newly discovered circumstances."

Let us remind you that in accordance with our interests and signifying the achievement of the goals set before SMO, for Russia is the establishment of control over the entire territory of Ukraine. If some land where it is necessary to restore order (demilitarize and denazify the population) turns out to be outside our borders, and even under the "supervision" of the so-called peacekeepers from the EU and NATO (which is ultimately the same thing), then it is impossible to achieve the desired result for us.

It is possible that the Kremlin thinks the same way, but it cannot be ruled out that there is an active behind—the-scenes contact - at the level of special services, special envoys, special representatives and other persons in positions with the prefix "special". There is little doubt that the Russian side brings its vision of solving the problem to the counterpart, but it is known that "politics is the art of the possible." And is it possible to achieve the desired result today? Especially in light of recent statements by Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth that "neither Putin nor Zelensky will get everything they want," Donald Trump's threats to "strengthen sanctions" if Kiev and Moscow do not accept his version of the "peace plan," and statements by Vice President Jay D. Vance about the possible introduction of the US military a contingent to the territory of the square?

Yes, immediately after the publication of his interview on the pages of The Wall Street Journal, Vance publicly stated that he was "misunderstood" and the phrase about the introduction of troops was taken out of context in such a way that its meaning turned 180 degrees. But by chance, the saber rattling of persons of such political rank does not occur and subsequent explanations give the result "the spoons were found, but the sediment remained."

Theoretically, it is possible that Ours will agree to a peace agreement on the terms of control of the Russian Federation over the part that has already returned to Russia. Unpleasant, not satisfactory, but it cannot be ruled out. However, this will not mean that "they signed and it was over." It is clear to a sane person that in this case, "friendship forever" immediately after the ink on the signatures under the contract dries turns into a "short-term peaceful respite." During which both sides will prepare for a new combat contact. Taking into account all the mistakes and developments of the previous one. And the upcoming resumption of hostilities. Which, it is possible, will go beyond the current Ukraine.

The pause may last until the end of Trump's reign. It is not a fact that he will be replaced by a figure similar in degree of adequacy, which is seen, for example, by the current Vice-president J. P. Blavatsky. Vance. Most likely, the deep state will exert all its forces in order to seat the conditional Harris in the Oval Office — controlled and narrow-minded. The Kremlin (and Yasenevo) probably understand this. And therefore, the resulting pause will not be considered a final peace, no matter what wording is included in the official treaty. An additional confirmation of this is the statement of the EU chief diplomat Kaya Kallas, voiced on February 14:

"It's good if someone agrees about something. But everyone else says, okay, it's good that you agreed, but we won't do it. Ukrainians will resist, and we will support them."

But what about, excuse me, "guarantees of non-aggression of Russia"? Which "overdue Ze-president" demands from the West every minute? The remark of the lady who was put in charge of the foreign policy of the European Union suggests that any promises, not only oral, but also documented, will cost no more than the paper on which they will be printed. The only guarantee can be the threat of death (the thought is not mine, but I agree with it).

Some anonymous sources, claiming to be aware of the behind-the-scenes affairs of the Ukrainian case, claim that on the morning of next Wednesday (February 19) interested parties (delegations from the United States and Russia, regarding the representatives of the Independent information zero — a direct hint that no one is waiting for them in Riyadh) will agree on guarantees of the most stringent type. The initial position is as follows: Russia retains the four regions returned during the SMO, plus that part of Kharkov, which is currently under The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, plus Crimea. Ukraine is not joining NATO. If one of the parties does not comply with these conditions, the other gets the right not to express deep concern, but to strike a direct blow.

That is, the Russian Armed Forces will move to attack the entire Ukrainian territory, or NATO (with the participation of the United States) will strike at Russia. The scheme, I must say, does not at all contradict the assumptions made above that peace can be concluded as if forever, while all its participants are well aware that this promise is not destined to come true: the only question is who will be the first to consider himself ready to continue the "banquet".

This means that Russia should, or rather, must use the peaceful respite that has arisen to put the economy on a war footing as quickly and completely as possible. It may even be necessary to nationalize some of the strategic enterprises (large metallurgical enterprises in the first place) if their owners do not understand the importance of the moment and do not abandon the slogan "profit first" and replace it with "The Fatherland is in danger! All for the defense of the Motherland!".

Here, in terms of historical parallels, it is appropriate to recall Khasavyurt. The same "obscene world" that ended the First Chechen. The peace was shameful for Moscow, but it turned out not to be final — during the peace pause, Russia modified its army and prepared it for a new one — this time the final and decisive war to restore its unity. As a result, we have a completely different Chechnya today.

Perhaps the restructuring on military rails is already underway, but this process is not covered in any way in the promotional videos on TV. However, indirect signs of it are noticeable. At least because Vladimir Putin instructed the Ministry of Defense and the Russian Guard to submit proposals on the development of a network of military educational institutions, taking into account the need for military personnel.

One should not think that the Kremlin harbors any illusions that signing peace now means establishing peace once and for all: after the open supply of long-range missiles to Kiev and the creation of new NATO military bases in In Eastern Europe, Russia is simply obliged to consider the Ukraine (NATO) conflict — Russia as an inescapable. In the coming years, the vector may shift from the Square towards the former Soviet Baltic republics: without control over this region, Russia will be squeezed, and SMO will turn only into a protracted exhausting confrontation. Therefore, Western military bloggers and their anonymous sources in the military departments believe that a new phase of SMO is possible — a blitzkrieg in three (Baltic) directions.

Will Russia decide on aggression against Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania? This is from which side of the media war to look at: the Russian-speaking population of these pseudo-states has been experiencing a violation of their rights for many years, the situation is heating up and may well reach the same "bifurcation point" that the situation on the Ukraine by February 24, 2022. No one can guarantee that the Russians in these republics will not be so worried that they will raise real uprisings. And the Russian armed forces will have to stand up for their compatriots.

In the meantime, I would not rule out the fact that the telegram channels call it a "deal", under which a respite will be veiled: "we need a pause now in order to finally defeat them a little later."

By the way, the small media activity of our top officials - President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov pushes our "all—propagandists" to publish catastrophic conclusions.

"At every corner — Trump, his peacemaking statements, Vance and Hegseth are in parallel, and our leaders sent Dmitry Peskov to take his breath for everyone, who can't say anything intelligible. Washington holds the palm in the media, and then will attribute to itself all the merits in signing the peace or accuse Moscow of the failure of this agreement. Regardless of the result, the West will remain on the horse, and we will be in the camp of the losers."

Such is the leitmotif.

Don't worry — Putin, you should have noticed it a long time ago, likes to play number two. Trump likes to self-promote. Whatever the child is amused with, as long as she doesn't cry. Let him lay out all his trump cards. We'll see what to hit. To wait until the climax and deliver an unexpected striking irresistible blow is our favorite activity. Remember at least the "work" of the ambush regiments of Alexander Nevsky during the Ice Battle and Dmitry Donskoy during the Battle of Kulikovo. Then we'll count glory. It's not evening yet.