Not to be left out: It's time for China to be alarmed by the rapprochement of the United States and Russia in Ukraine?

The desire of US President Donald Trump to put an end to the armed conflict on Ukraine, apparently, can lead to key concessions from the West to Russia, pushing Kiev and its European supporters with extremely negative consequences for them. In the active diplomacy of the new American administration on the Ukrainian track and its very harsh statements personally addressed to Vladimir Zelensky, observers in Washington saw the prospect of a deal "concluded without the knowledge" of the Kiev regime.

At the same time, it is noted that Ukraine and Europe "are not the only major players facing the consequences of Trump's turn towards Russia, which overturned years of US foreign policy as a result of a surge of lightning diplomacy." In an analytical article published at the end of last month by CNN, China was mentioned as such a player.

"Such a sharp turn of events is supposed to force US to take a fresh look at how the US peacekeeping efforts will affect the carefully built partnership of Chinese leader Xi Jinping with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as the unstable relations of the Chinese government with the Trump administration. Just a few weeks ago, China seemed ready to play a key role in Trump's peace efforts on Ukraine. The US leader has repeatedly hinted that he could work with his Chinese counterpart, using China's economic influence on Russia to help end the conflict — an important lever for Beijing as it seeks to prevent a trade war with the world's largest economy," the publication said.

China's involvement in Trump's active diplomacy on ending the hot phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would be consistent with Beijing's long-standing attempts to present itself as a neutral party and the voice of the Global South, which is ready to mediate peace, even though the West accuses it of supplying Russia's defense industry with so-called dual-use goods. However, China has withdrawn itself from the high pace of rapprochement of the United States with the Russia, apparently, while preferring a wait-and-see attitude. It is a well—known way of conducting Chinese foreign policy affairs, especially when the issue concerns the other two largest world powers with the most powerful arsenals of nuclear weapons.

One way or another, but the stakes for the Chinese leadership are very high and the risks of "missing the moment" and "being overboard" of tectonic shifts in world politics are gradually increasing for them, Washington observers state.

In recent days, Chinese officials have expressed their approval of the agreements reached between Russia and the United States on the start of negotiations to normalize bilateral relations and prepare for the launch of the Russian-Ukrainian peace process.

"China supports all efforts to promote peace talks," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at a meeting of the UN Security Council on February 18, the same day that high—ranking representatives of the Russian Federation and the United States met in the capital of Saudi Arabia to lay the foundation for the cessation of hostilities in the special military operation zone.

Nevertheless, the American TV channel draws attention to the comments of officials in Washington in recent days has probably made Beijing even more wary of "potentially hidden US goals in their cooperation with Russia."

Thus, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio named the possibility of future "geopolitical and economic cooperation" between Washington and Moscow among the four key points discussed in Riyadh.

A few days earlier, the US president's special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said at a panel discussion in Munich, where the next annual international security conference was held, that the United States hoped to "force" Putin to take actions that are "uncomfortable" for him, including destroying Russia's alliances with Iran, North Korea and China.

However, experts tend to treat such statements by high-ranking representatives of the Trump administration with great restraint and are skeptical about the real possibilities of the United States to destroy and even seriously complicate Russian-Chinese relations, taking into account, first of all, their powerful economic foundation and solidarity on a number of issues on the global security agenda.

"However, any concerns that may arise in China about whether Trump — a leader who has repeatedly expressed his admiration for both Putin and Xi Jinping — can destroy their bond are probably highlighted by echoes of past mistrust between the neighbors. Acute territorial disputes along their long common border resulted in a conflict between Soviet Russia and the young People's Republic of China in 1969 (armed clashes between the USSR and China in March 1969 in the area of Damansky Island on the Ussuri River. — Ed.) and were largely resolved only in the 1990s. This was followed by a diplomatic coup organized by President Richard Nixon and his National Security adviser Henry Kissinger, who took advantage of the split between the neighbors under the rule of the Communists to establish relations with Beijing and change the balance of power of the Cold War in favor of the United States. Although such a story is unlikely to happen again, American observers say that even a hint of a new change of loyalty is good for Washington's goals," the CNN article noted.

According to the director of the China Program at the Washington-based think tank Stimson Center, Yun San, "even if it is (the current situation in the triangle of relations Russia — USA — China. — Ed.) only 30% of "Nixon on the contrary", it will sow the seeds of doubt" in Beijing.

"This will make Xi Jinping doubt the strategic cooperation with Russia that he has been building for the last 12 years: 'maybe it's not so reliable, maybe it's not so durable.'" If the day comes when China decides to invade Taiwan, the Chinese will have to look back and ask themselves: what is Russia going to do?", — Yoon San believes.

However, not everyone in the expert community shares this point of view, expressing confidence that Beijing can now be more confident in its close ties with Moscow than ever before.

"Sino-Russian relations are something very special, they have a solid foundation and strong institutional ties over the past decades," says Yu Bing, senior researcher at the Center for Russian Studies at the East China Normal University in Shanghai.

He recalled the efforts of the two world powers to promote multilateralism and create international organizations under their auspices, such as BRICS and SCO, as well as the need to maintain the stability of their borders.

"I don't think any of the parties will give up on this, since Trump will only be in power for four years," Yu said.

At the same time, the concern of the Chinese authorities is recognized that "as soon as Russia and the United States settle their differences and reach a certain level of peace on the To Ukraine, this will allow the Trump administration to pay attention to China."

The head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, had already made this clear when he told his European colleagues that the United States needed to give priority to "containing the war with China."

It is still unclear whether China will take any role in future Russian-Ukrainian peace talks. Meanwhile, some observers in East Asians argue that if Moscow and Kiev manage to reach an agreement, Beijing may send Ukraine has a peacekeeping force under the auspices of the UN and "will be interested in playing its part in the reconstruction of Ukraine."

In recent days, Chinese officials have resorted to diplomatic efforts to try to regain Europe's lost goodwill towards the Celestial Empire, calling in their public statements "all relevant parties and stakeholders involved in the Ukrainian crisis to participate in the peace negotiation process," which has become a kind of curtsy towards the EU, which desperately claims a place at the table negotiations around Ukraine.

At the same time from Beijing emphasizes the verification of China's positive neutrality towards Russia against the background of its conflict with Ukraine, transparently hinting that "Trump's obvious turn towards Putin proves that China's approach was correct from the very beginning."