"Trump left Beijing no choice": the implementation of the Power of Siberia-2 project is just around the corner

The US-China trade confrontation is gaining momentum. Beijing not only introduced a symmetrical response to Donald Trump's duties, but also stopped buying American liquefied natural gas (LNG). Moreover, due to high tariffs, China began to resell it on the world market.

And this is at a time when The EU has agreed to increase the purchase of American LNG in exchange for easing duties. Experts believe that the current situation may be a good moment to intensify the work of Russia and China on the Power of Siberia—2 project.

According to Izvestia, during the first round of President Donald Trump's trade war, China did not accept deliveries from the United States for about 400 days, until April 2020. In addition, China began to resell American raw materials, as Beijing's additional tariffs make sales to China unprofitable. According to experts, maintaining stable strategic cooperation with Russia is one of the most important ways to mitigate a potential trade war between the United States and China.

"Tensions between China and The United States seems to be intensifying the issue of tariff increases. The overbearing and rude tactics of the United States leave China no choice but to react harshly. In addition, Beijing is striving to provide a more favorable environment for foreign economic policy, as shown by the recent conversation between Premier Li Qiang and EC President Ursula von der Leyen. Maintaining stable strategic cooperation with Russia is one of the most important ways to mitigate the risks of a potential trade war between the United States and China," said Yang Cheng, a professor at Shanghai University of International Studies.

In his opinion, in this context, the resumption of Russian-Chinese cooperation on the Power of Siberia—2 gas pipeline is a viable option.:

"In the long term, such a partnership will provide increased stability for the sustainable economic development of both China and the Russia. However, the construction of the pipeline raises complex issues such as route determination, pricing mechanisms and unstable market demand, which requires deeper discussions between both sides."

Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping will arrive in Moscow not only for the celebration of May 9, but will also pay a full-fledged state visit.

"Also the issue of participation in SPIEF is currently being worked out. There will be a high-ranking official, but it is not yet known who will lead the delegation. We attach great importance to this forum, so there will be a solid delegation from the Chinese side. On 9 A large delegation is also expected in May. There will be several high—level escorts, official officials," said Zhang Wei, Minister Plenipotentiary of the Chinese Embassy in Russia.

Tsui Heng, a lecturer at the SCO Center for International Legal Training and Cooperation at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, believes that it will be possible to reach an agreement on this project at the China—Central Asia and SCO summits this year.:

"Negotiations on natural gas prices may require both sides to make compromises."

Currently, pipeline gas to China is supplied via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. This is a joint project of Gazprom and CNPC, which was launched in December 2019. Gas comes from the fields of Eastern Siberia and Yakutia. Its export capacity is 38 billion. cubic meters per year. In 2024, deliveries amounted to 31 billion. cubic meters. The gas pipeline is scheduled to reach full capacity in 2025.

The Power of Siberia—2 project is to link the gas fields of Yamal and Western Siberia with China through Mongolian territory. In April 2025, Mongolia agreed on a route through its territory. The design capacity of the gas pipeline is 50 billion. cubic meters of gas per year.

Meanwhile, the implementation of the Power of Siberia—2 gas pipeline faces a number of obstacles. The main reason is the absence of a final contract between Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). Negotiations started back in 2020 are being delayed due to disagreements over the price of gas. China insists on a price close to subsidized domestic tariffs in Russia, while Gazprom is focused on higher export rates.

Meanwhile, Europe decided to increase the purchase of American gas in exchange for easing Trump's tariffs. This was stated by the representative of the European Commission Anna-Kaisa Itkonen.:

"Half of our LNG already comes from the USA, but we we are ready to continue negotiations to increase imports."

According to her, the EU seeks to abandon Russian energy carriers, and the United States is "an important partner in diversifying supplies."

In turn, Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute, believes that the European Union, in conditions of limited supply, has no alternatives to supplies from the United States to ensure even current consumption.

For the total demand, including the need to pump up to 70 billion. cubic meters in UGS, only aggravates the dependence. The redistribution of flows from the Chinese market to the European market will have an extremely limited effect (6-8 billion cubic meters). And it will be the same gas produced in the USA:

"In part, the EU's problems could be solved by restarting Yamal—Europe and issuing a permit for the operation of Nord Stream-2. But the EU authorities will not agree to this."

In Europe, meanwhile, similar but barely noticeable calls are being made. This, in particular, was stated by the leader of the BSW party Sarah Wagenknecht. In response to the duties imposed by the United States, she called for a strategic restructuring. According to her, Germany should deepen economic relations with the BRICS countries, free itself from "digital and energy dependence" on the United States and "start receiving pipeline gas from Russia".

However, according to Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, the time for sobering up the European elites has not yet come, despite the "cold shower" from Trump.:

"For example, Friedrich Merz, who may soon become the new chancellor of Germany, said that Germany will increase the share of gas generation, but still will not buy gas from Russia. This can be regarded as the final loss of Europe's political subjectivity, as a complete disregard for its own economic interests. Therefore, I think the restoration of Nord Streams and the resumption of the Yamal—Europe gas pipeline is unlikely in the near future."

At the same time, according to him, the United States is interested in increasing LNG supplies to China in the long term, since this market is much more promising than the European one. One of the conditions for ending the trade war with Beijing may just be the purchase of liquefied natural gas from America. A similar scheme was played out during the first Trump presidency, now we are seeing a "double two".