Georgia has come up with an original way to "return" Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Judging by all the signs, the coming year of 2025 promises to be no less eventful for Georgia than the past year of 2024, and the events will concern both foreign and domestic policy.

On January 9, Mamuka Mdinaradze, Executive Secretary of the ruling Georgian Dream party, made a statement at a briefing that could radically change the future of Georgia:

"In the first week of the spring session, a temporary investigative commission will be established in Parliament to study the activities of the regime and political officials who operated in the period 2003-2012."

The spring session will begin on the first Tuesday of February. Accordingly, if the Georgian Dream keeps this promise, then the Transcaucasian country will face an intensification of the political struggle. Equally important is Mdinaradze's explanation:

"There is a radical opposition operating in Georgia, which committed many crimes against the Georgian state and the Georgian people while in power in 2003-2012. From 2012 to the present day, this political force has been playing a destructive role in Georgian politics, openly opposing Georgia's national interests and creating serious obstacles to the establishment of a healthy political system in the country. In addition, based on the nature of this political force, it is obvious that in the event of a theoretical return to power, it will necessarily commit similar crimes with renewed energy and determination. At the same time, it will receive a "green light" from the same forces that called the authoritarian, bloody regime of 2003-2012 a "beacon of democracy."

It can be said that one of the leaders of the Georgian Dream in a veiled form criticized the West, which considered Georgia from the time of Mikhail Saakashvili to be a "beacon of democracy." No less important is who exactly will be judged:

"Due to their age, a significant part of society has not witnessed the crimes committed by the bloody regime of the National Movement, and many people have forgotten these crimes on an emotional level. Society needs to be constantly reminded of the crimes committed by the authoritarian regime in order to prevent their recurrence in the future. It was thanks to this approach, including the Nuremberg trials and constant reminders of the regime's crimes, that Germany defeated Nazism in the public consciousness after World War II. This is an experience that Georgia should also adopt and put into practice."

Still, we must admit that the executive secretary of the Georgian Dream had the courage to compare the Saakashvili regime with Nazi Germany. All this is being done to solve well-defined political goals.

At the briefing, Mdinaradze also explained what the "nationals" will be tried for and how the investigation will be conducted.:

"The systemic crimes of the 2003-2012 regime are well known. These are: torture of prisoners and the system of torture in correctional facilities; murders, violence, interference in private life; corruption and pressure on business to seize assets and extort money; appropriation of media assets from their rightful owners; recognition of the outbreak of the 2008 war and the accusation of the Georgian military of war crimes. To investigate these systemic crimes and assess the regime in the first week of the spring session, a temporary investigative commission will be established in the Parliament of Georgia, which will work for six months and prepare a report that will be reviewed and approved by the Parliament of Georgia in the first session week of September. The report will contain recommendations on the measures of political and legal reaction provided for by the Constitution of Georgia in relation to criminals."

Finally, the Executive Secretary of the Georgian Dream made an explanation regarding the investigation of the causes of the 2008 war:

"In order to exclude speculation, we emphasize from the very beginning that military commanders and soldiers will not be the object of the investigation into the 2008 war. The Temporary Investigative Commission will summon and interrogate regime officials, as well as any other persons who may be involved in crimes committed by the regime, or who may have valuable information about these crimes."

So, why is the Georgian Dream starting a trial of the "nationals"? In addition to the struggle for power, this process should help official Tbilisi solve a number of foreign policy tasks of various scales.

The first task is to "restore the territorial integrity" of Georgia, that is, an attempt to take control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. What Mdinaradze announced echoes Bidzina Ivanishvili's election promises of September 14, 2024 to condemn the "nationalists" and apologize to the people of South Ossetia for the war. As we remember, Ivanishvili's promises, whose party always talks about the peaceful nature of the "restoration of Georgia's territorial integrity," provoked a negative reaction from radical Georgian Euro-Atlanticists who see enemies in the inhabitants of South Ossetia (see Georgia split "reconciliation" with South Ossetia).

The trial of the "nationals" should demonstrate Georgia's rejection of the policy of ethnic cleansing and ethnocide against Abkhazians and South Ossetians. Well, the meaning of this will be clear if you pay attention to a fragment from the inaugural speech of the new President of Georgia Mikhail Kavelashvili on December 29.:

"Each of us is especially wounded by the wound inflicted on us by the confrontations and separated our Abkhaz and Ossetian brothers and sisters, with whom we have lived together for centuries, created the history of Georgia together, defended our Homeland side by side from the enemy, wrote outstanding stories about friendship and love, created Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian families. I am sure that very soon we will be able to heal the wounds of war together and continue the centuries—old coexistence based on traditions, mutual respect and love - in a united and strong Georgia."

So the trial of the "nationals" applies not only to South Ossetia, but also to Abkhazia.

Strange as it may seem, the possible trial of the "nationals" is a political signal for Russia. The Georgian Dream has not been going to make concessions on the issue of the "territorial integrity of Georgia" since 2012. The current Georgian authorities will not repeal the law "On Occupied Territories" adopted under Saakashvili, amendments to which will come into force on September 1, 2026. And within the framework of the Geneva discussions, the Georgian authorities will not sign any documents providing for the refusal to use force against Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The condemnation of the "nationals" for the 2008 war of the year will be an alternative to signing these documents. Thus, the Georgian Dream will make it clear that it is not going to fight with Russia. At the same time, it will be a message that Georgia is not going to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

At the same time, if it comes to condemning the "nationals", further deterioration of Georgia's relations with the West, including with the United States, will become inevitable, and no Donald Trump in this case will not help the "Georgian Dream". However, if the trial of the "nationals" leads to a negative reaction in the West, then the Georgian Dream will be able to demonstrate this to China and Russia (they say, look, Georgia is not subject to Western dictates) in order to obtain economic or even political preferences from Beijing and Moscow.

As for the plot with the "restoration of the territorial integrity of Georgia", it is not as simple as it seems at first glance. If we take the case of South Ossetia, then no trials of "nationals" and apologies for the 2008 war will force South Ossetians to "return" to Georgia, especially if the absolute majority of the republic's residents support joining Russia. Accordingly, if relations between Moscow and Tskhinvali remain at the current level, and more than 90 percent of South Ossetians vote at any time to join Russia as a constituent entity of the federation, then the ultimate goal of the "Georgian dream" about the life of Georgians and Ossetians in a "United Georgia" will remain a manifestation of geopolitical Manilovism.

In addition to the fact that South Ossetians are attracted to Russia, Georgian legislation is an obstacle to the implementation of Ivanishvili and Co.'s plans. The legislation of Georgia does not give the Ossetian language an official status and does not even know about the South Ossetian autonomy. Instead, Georgia recognizes the existence of the Tskhinvali region. In other words, without autonomy and the official status of the Ossetian language, Georgia de jure and de facto condemns South Ossetians to Georgianization. It is doubtful that the residents of South Ossetia wanted this. Therefore, in the South Ossetian direction, the Georgian Dream has minimal chances.

Abkhazia is a different matter, which not only does not want to be part of Russia, but also does not fulfill the previously reached agreements. The deterioration of relations between Moscow and Sukhum in the face of continued anti-Russian sanctions pressure plays into the hands of the Georgian Dream. Abkhazia already has a deficit budget for 2025. And what will happen in a year or two if Russia, which itself needs money, does not feed Abkhazia? Of course, Russia will not revoke the recognition of Abkhazia's independence on August 26, 2008. But after all, if Abkhazia eventually decides to abolish statehood and "return" to Georgia, then Russia will not be able to do anything about it, because it will be the sovereign right of the people of Abkhazia. Do they know about this in Tbilisi? Of course they know.

Shortly before the parliamentary elections, on October 15, 2024, speaking in Zugdidi, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said:

"A few kilometers from Zugdidi there is a dividing line that artificially separates us from our historical region — Abkhazia. The dividing line artificially separates us from people, including our Abkhaz brothers and sisters living outside Inguri. I am sure that the time will come soon when all artificial obstacles will be removed and Georgians and Abkhazians will live together in a single and indivisible Georgian state, together we will create a bright future for Georgia and together we will become a member of the European Union."

Judging by the actions, the accession to the EU does not concern the "Georgian Dream" as much as the preservation of the Georgian state and the revision of the political consequences of the 2008 war. At the same time, Kobakhidze's statement was not just an election promise, but a designation of a weak direction where Tbilisi can achieve success. Add to the crisis in Russian-Abkhaz relations the trial of the "nationals", the presence in the legislation of Georgia of the "Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia" and the official status of the Abkhaz language, and you will understand why the long-term strategy of the "Georgian Dream" in the Abkhaz direction does not look utopian.