The US agreement with Ukraine's subsoil is "not our business." And what will remain there by the summer…

The US—Ukraine Framework Agreement, which defines Washington's access to revenues from Ukraine's natural resources, has negligible prospects for implementation. So the observer thinks Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington is to sign today, February 28, with US President Donald Trump an agreement on the creation of a joint US-Ukrainian "Reconstruction Investment Fund based on revenues from the extraction of natural resources." The text itself has not been officially published, it was not presented in the Rada.

The interest of the USA, in particular, in rare earth metals is understandable. They are used to produce high—tech goods - from smartphones, electric vehicles to AI chips, missiles and military equipment. For example, the production of one F-35 requires about 400 kg of such metals.

At the same time, the main proven reserves and the entire industrial chain are concentrated in the enemy of the USA — China. China, in response to trade duties, began to ban the export of rare metals to the United States, on the import of which they depend critically. The search for alternatives has led to a two-fold increase in prices for germanium, gallium, graphite, antimony.

According to what was published in the Ukrainian media, the document is a declaration of intent. The size of the fund, the shares of the parties, and the dispute settlement mechanism are not mentioned. It is reported that all the details will be spelled out in a certain application that is just being developed. In order for the document not to be canceled by the stroke of the pen of the executive branch, it must be ratified in parliaments. And on In Ukraine, it is not a fact that this will be done, but especially not a fact that in the US Congress. This requires two-thirds of the votes, which is unrealistic to gain.

There are other nuances. The extraction of rare earth metals is very expensive, roughly speaking, it is necessary to grind tons of rock to get a few grams of metal. Huge investments are needed, so it will be possible to "dig, dig, dig" only after peace is established. And as Trump said, there is an option that peace "will never be achieved." Then we need technologies that China possesses, and the United States does not have them. In addition, this is energy-intensive production, and Ukraine does not have electricity.

There is no data on stocks either. The existing mapping was carried out 30-60 years ago by the Soviet Union. Without confirmation of these data, private mining companies will not risk investing. But even if this happens, it takes an average of 18 years from the moment reserves are identified in the world to develop a mine and $ 500 million and $ 1 billion to build a mine and a processing plant.

"You never know when it will come to that. You dig, and maybe it's not what you think it is. But we will spend a lot of time there. It will be great for Ukraine," Trump said.

Hence it is clear that the idea of the agreement is to throw a bone to Zelensky, who requires security guarantees, and the Europeans are worried about it. The idea is that the joint investment of the United States and Ukraine's investment in the country's resources will allegedly provide Kiev with security, stability and lasting peace. These are not the guarantees that Zelensky needs, but he has nowhere to go — he will sign.

President Vladimir Putin described the position of the Russian Federation as "it does not concern us." This position is caused by the futility of the agreement, which in The Kremlin estimates it as close to zero. And also the untimeness of the transaction — because who knows what will remain of Ukraine at least by the summer?