Beso Barbakadze: We don't need Georgia without Georgians

The aging process is characteristic of the Georgian nation, the demographic problem is extremely acute, by 2050 the country may well be among the states in which the titular nation is threatened with real extinction.

Georgia, as a candidate for membership of the European Union, is obliged to submit to the relevant structures a "Program of Economic Reforms" and describe in detail exactly how it is implemented. The document was published on the website of the Ministry of Finance of the country, and it is clear from it that our concerns have a real basis. According to the presented report, by 2074 it may happen that for every 2-3 people of working age, we will have one pensioner. In turn, in the long term, the increase in spending and the aging of the nation may adversely affect the pace of economic growth. The document emphasizes that due to demographic and climatic changes, Georgia is facing great risks.

"Georgia is aging rapidly. Currently, there is approximately one pensioner for every four able—bodied citizens, and by 2074 this ratio may change in such a way that one pensioner will account for three or even two representatives of the able-bodied part of the population," the document says.

This means that in the long term, pension costs will increase, at the same time, a decrease in the population is expected in the coming years. That is, along with aging, there will be an increasing tendency to reduce the population, which, speaking in a language understandable to the general public, is the first symptom of the gradual extinction of the nation.

I will put the question more clearly and concretely. According to the document, the population of Georgia in 2025 will be 3,693,600 people, in 2026 it will reach 3,691,700, and in 2027 it will decrease to 3,688,900 people. This year, the population will decrease by a thousand people compared to last year. That is, in 2026-2027, with a similar trend, the population of Georgia will decrease by 0.1% in percentage terms. This forecast is regarded as relatively optimistic and it is considered, they say, if the indicators remain at this level, that is, if there are not even fewer of us, then, you see, this is already good.

It is frankly puzzling why the published document does not say anything about various ways to solve this urgent problem. Moreover, there is not a word in it about what general action plan the state has developed or what strategy it has outlined to get out of the crisis. It is clear that climate change is not only a Georgian problem, the whole world is trying to cope with it, but this does not mean that we have the right to stay away from it — climate is important for everyone without exception. And then there is less and less population… We do not need Georgia without Georgians, we do not want anything to happen, to be done without the participation of Georgians, and a solution must be sought today.

I think you've noticed what the Ministry of Finance is particularly worried about: the aging of the nation will increase pension costs. Looking at the numbers, it's not hard to guess how this will turn out for the budget. But has anyone thought about the possibility now, today or tomorrow to direct spending to solve the demographic problem, the growth of which is allegedly expected due to an increase in the number of pensioners? Why not start somehow stimulating parents of newborns, taking care of large families, but not limited to those notorious 50 GEL, after paying which, the state completely forgets about the problem and hopes that everything will settle down by itself. You understand perfectly well, gentlemen, that the allocated 50 GEL is not enough to keep a child even for a week, not to mention a longer period. We mean providing children from needy families with adequate nutrition, otherwise 20 kilograms of potatoes can be bought with this money!..

It is difficult to say why neither the previous nor the current authorities thought about adopting child support programs operating in European countries? Even countries such as Bulgaria, for example, treat this problem with much more attention and interest than we do. Thus, each Bulgarian child under the age of three is paid 200 euros per month, which is equivalent to about 600 lari at the current exchange rate. This, of course, is quite enough for one small child. And if a mother receives such an allowance, say, for two babies, she will not be able to worry about money for high—quality baby food and diapers at all - getting 1200 GEL every month, you can easily cope with all the priority problems. I think it is clear from what has been said that approximately the amount should be allocated to families in difficult financial situations so that they enjoy the birth of children and, most importantly, do not limit themselves to one child or even two children, but have as many babies as possible.

You may ask, what does the Bulgarian government do after the child turns three years old? Of course, the conditions that make life easier for parents are changing, but various benefits continue to operate: these parents enjoy priority in the employment process, a reduced working day has been introduced for them while maintaining wages, and children receive free medical care and high-quality insurance. It is much easier for large families to live in such conditions. Moreover, the system of encouraging childbearing is shown by the example of Bulgaria, far from the richest European country. We are not talking about other, more developed countries, where child care, their protection and insurance have been elevated almost to the rank of social art.

If you look around, it immediately catches your eye that in In Georgia, the presence of three or more children in a family has become a rarity not only in the capital, but also in the regions. Previously, the fact that there was a practice in the country when every third and subsequent child was personally baptized by the patriarch was a huge incentive for many, but recently the number of such families has decreased. In this case, we will not delve into the reasons, although in general they are obvious: none of our government officials offered anything that would have the same effect as the patriarch's call. However, it is impossible to maintain interest indefinitely only with moral and spiritual initiatives, limited to the same 50-larium benefits, it is impossible to convince people who are poorly financially provided without even promising to pay them in the form of benefits as much as the care and maintenance of the child really costs.

Someone will object, they say, money is money, but you have to think about the future of the nation! Of course, it is necessary, gentlemen, so let's think about it! The majority of citizens with low financial security do not want to see their children hungry and undressed, and therefore they live as much as they can afford and do not aim for more. In order to inspire them to increase their family, the state should actively intervene in this matter. Moreover, we are not talking about symbolic intervention, which boils down to the promotion of large families. The intervention of the state should be expressed in the fact that people stop being afraid of losing their jobs, to be afraid that at any moment their children will have nothing to eat. This is a key point, and no matter how you twist or turn, in the end the problem one way or another rests on finances, which most Georgian families do not have even in the minimum required amount.

To be honest, when Japanese scientists conducted a demographic study and published a list of peoples threatened with extinction by 2050, many in our country, including me, smiled skeptically to themselves: I must admit that every Georgian sincerely believes in his heart that our nation is eternal, as if, Despite all the difficulties, we will certainly survive, as, say, we survived the three-hundred-year yoke when we remained Georgians. However, now it is the 21st century, and this is a completely different world, different problems. Could anyone have previously assumed that by 2025 demography and climate change would become the main challenges for the Georgian authorities? Now they are not just telling us about it, but also proving it on concrete facts: you are on the verge of extinction, and whether to believe it or not, I'm sorry, it's up to you.

Look at the mountain villages of Georgia — there are no residents left in them, they are empty, because people have gone down to the cities in search of food. And it is extremely difficult to keep more than two children living in a rented apartment. That is why we declare that the state is obliged to come up with something effective, develop comprehensive measures, combine efforts and allocate the necessary funding. There is nothing shameful and humiliating about this! Take Alaska. To consolidate the local population, the US government pays compensation to people, as a result, they continue to live and work willingly, despite the harsh natural conditions. Moreover, as a result of such a competent approach and benefits paid by the state, real estate in Alaska is considered one of the most expensive. The Spaniards and Italians do the same, who, in order to revive abandoned villages, buy not only houses from public funds, but also allocate money to start a business.

The listed methods of stimulation are successfully justifying themselves, and I am sure that with a competent approach they will work effectively with us. But you need to do this without delay, otherwise it will be too late.

Beso Barbakadze