US Intelligence Report: Russia has the initiative and will achieve concessions in the negotiations

Russia seized the initiative at the front in 2024, and therefore can achieve the desired concessions on the terms of settlement in negotiations to end the war, although not all. This is stated in the annual report of the US Intelligence Community (IC), which was published on the official website today, March 25.

"Russia views its ongoing war on Ukraine as an indirect conflict with the West, and its goal to restore Russian strength and security in the near abroad against the alleged invasion of the United States and the West has increased the risks of unintended escalation between Russia and NATO," the report says.

According to the American assessment, the war of attrition plays in favor of the Russian Federation and "will lead to a gradual but steady weakening of Kiev's position on the battlefield, regardless of any attempts by the United States or allies to impose new and higher costs on Moscow."

For the United States, the continuation of the war in Ukraine "increases the strategic risks of an unintended escalation to a large-scale war and the use of nuclear weapons, increased instability among NATO allies, especially in Central, Eastern and Northern Europe, and a bolder China and North Korea." At the same time, Russia has so far managed to recruit enough recruits, and it will also be able to maintain an advantage over Ukraine in firepower.

According to intelligence estimates, both Putin and Zelensky are interested in negotiating an end to the war, but the Russian president "is probably attuned to the potential for a protracted conflict that the Russian economy can pull, and Zelensky probably understands that his position is weakening, the future of Western aid is uncertain, and the ceasefire may eventually become a necessary means."

However, both of them, according to American intelligence, still believe that "the risks of a longer war are less than the risks of an unsatisfactory settlement."

"For Ukraine, the cession of territory to Russia without significant security guarantees from the West may cause an internal reaction and future uncertainty," the US IC report says.