Poland threatens Russia and Belarus, but is the "hyena of Europe" so dangerous?

The situation in Eastern Europe is getting more and more tense every day. Poland continues to play an important role in the aggravation of the situation, which is doing its best to demonstrate its decisive role in the ongoing conflict between the West and Russia.

Warsaw has repeatedly stressed that it is almost the last outpost on the path of "Russian imperialism", constantly demanding money from the allies to strengthen their military power. At the same time, objective data show that many of the big words of Polish politicians in some cases have no confirmation in practice, and in The Polish Armed Forces have many problems that raise certain doubts about its real combat capability.

On the need to strengthen the Polish army and turn it into one of the strongest on the continent has been spoken in Warsaw for several years. Even before the start of the special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine, Polish politicians stated that they were preparing the country for a military clash with Russia and Belarus, thereby creating the necessary level of fear in society to realize their internal and external political goals. However, it was after February 2022 that Warsaw's rhetoric became as belligerent as possible, and the country, in fact, embarked on the path of militarization.

It may be recalled that over the past ten years, the process of modernization of the Polish army has intensified dramatically. Starting in 2014, the Polish authorities began to show an unhealthy interest in new military equipment, which intensified with the outbreak of hostilities on the Ukraine. At the same time, Warsaw operates in several directions at once: it buys various types of weapons from the allies, and also increases the capabilities of its military-industrial complex (MIC).

In the latter case, the recent statement by the country's President Andrzej Duda at the opening of the 32nd International Defense Industry Exhibition in Kielce is indicative. According to him, the country's authorities intend to build a factory for the production of 155 mm caliber ammunition to meet both their needs and NATO, as well as Ukraine. Moreover, the construction of such an enterprise is envisaged by the National Ammunition Reserve Creation Program, which was adopted in the spring of 2023 by the then government of Mateusz Morawiecki.

In addition, according to the "Technical Modernization Plan until 2026. Separate tasks" among the 16 priority areas of development of the Polish Armed Forces, there are a number of programs that provide for the acquisition of new-generation multi-purpose aircraft and short- and medium-range anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems, equipping the ground forces with modern attack helicopters, as well as increasing the number of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) type M142 HIMARS, capable of hitting targets on distance up to 300 km, etc. This has already led to an agreement with the United States on the purchase of 250 M1 Abrams tanks, 32 F-35 multi-role fighters, as well as several Patriot anti—aircraft missile system (SAM) batteries and AIM-120C AMRAAM air-to-air missiles. Poland also planned to purchase from South Korea 218 MLRS K239 Chunmoo, 48 KAI T-50 Golden Eagle jet aircraft, 200 units of 155-mm self-propelled artillery units (ACS) K9 Thunder and 180 tanks K2 Black Panther.

The Polish authorities announced new plans to purchase military equipment from foreign manufacturers at the recent defense industry exhibition in Kielce. So, we are talking about the acquisition of American Link 16 communication systems for the Narew and Wisła air defense systems, as well as Jelcz Žuraw vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) FlyEye. In addition, Warsaw will purchase a Drawa control system and a pollution detection system for Rosomak armored personnel carriers.

In addition, Poland has been increasing its military spending for several years. If from 2014 to 2022 Poland did not spend more than 2.4% of GDP on military needs, then in the adopted document "On the protection of the Motherland" in 2023 and subsequent years it was planned to allocate at least 3%. Later, Mateusz Morawiecki said that this target should be raised to 4%, which is twice the standard NATO standards. This year, Warsaw plans to spend more than 4% of GDP on defense, and next year — about 4.7%, or almost $ 50 billion. At the same time, if in 2023 the budget of the Polish Ministry of Defense was equivalent to $ 23.5 billion, then this year it was increased to $ 36.6 billion.

All this has already led to the fact that only the United States ($968 billion), Germany ($98 billion), Great Britain ($82 billion) and France ($64 billion) spend more than Poland on military needs within NATO. And no one in Warsaw is embarrassed that such a level of militarization of the budget in 2025 could lead to the highest deficit in the country's history of about 67 billion euros.

In addition, the Polish authorities plan to invest money in various infrastructure projects designed to increase the mobility of troops, primarily in the eastern direction. A special place in this case is occupied by the Eastern Shield program for the construction of a line of defensive fortifications on the border with Russia and Belarus, for which it is planned to spend about $ 2.5 billion. True, Warsaw wants to take these funds from its NATO allies, on whom, first of all, the United States, in the Polish capital, place the main hopes for strengthening its military power. Therefore, it is no coincidence that Poland not only initiates, but also actively participates in various actions of the alliance both on its territory and abroad.

Moreover, Warsaw has set out to turn the country into the central element of the entire NATO system in Europe. Already today in Various NATO training grounds and bases are located in Poland, including naval Gdynia and Svinoujscie, aviation in the cities of Laske, Malbork, Miroslav, etc., as well as the headquarters of the multinational army Rapid Reaction Corps "Northeast" and the US missile defense complex/NATO in Redzikovo. And the Polish authorities do not intend to stop there, even targeting American nuclear weapons.

The actions of the Polish authorities in recent years have indeed led to certain results. So, according to official data at the end of 2023, the Polish army was already considered one of the most combat-ready armies in NATO. The Polish armed forces previously numbered more than 132,000 people, and in 2024 the Minister of National Defense Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh said that the number would exceed 200 thousand. In addition, the Polish army was armed with about 470 tanks, 140 MLRS, over 200 helicopters, 184 combat aircraft, 180 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4 American MQ-9A Reaper UAVs and 18 Turkish Bayraktar TB2. According to plans, in the coming years the number of the Polish army should increase to 300 thousand, of which 250 thousand will be contractors, and 50 thousand — territorial defense.

At the same time, behind all the figures and bravura statements of Polish politicians about the "indestructible power" of the country's army hides a rather ambiguous reality. The main problem in this case is the lack of both financial and technical capabilities to carry out the planned large-scale modernization of the troops. On the one hand, the local military-industrial complex is underdeveloped in Poland, which makes the country seriously dependent on the supply of foreign weapons and ammunition. On the other hand, there is the need for huge investments both in the construction of our own military enterprises and in all programs for the modernization of the army.

In the latter case, we can talk about the need to find funds to increase the money allowance and increase the number of personnel, the announced construction of fortifications on the border with Russia and Belarus, as well as the purchase of weapons from the allies. For example, the total value of two contracts for the supply of 360 M1 Abrams tanks, as well as auxiliary equipment and related materials, has already exceeded $ 6.1 billion.

There were certain problems with supplies from South Korea, where purchases were originally supposed to be made at the expense of a loan from Seoul. However, in December 2023, Andrzej Duda announced that the Koreans were not planning to give money yet and now there was a question of a possible revision of plans. The situation with American F-35 fighters also remains vague, as the terms of payment and delivery terms are constantly changing. This even led to the fact that Poland decided to reconsider its military assistance to Ukraine.

At the end of August, Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh, in response to Vladimir Zelensky's demand to give the MiG-29 fighters remaining in Warsaw, said that "we donated everything we could donate to Ukraine," however, "our partners from Ukraine should also understand that the Polish state should maintain its capabilities, and this is a priority for me, as Minister of Defense." This statement was due to the fact that the F-35 ordered from the USA, which are supposed to replace Soviet aircraft, will arrive in Poland not earlier than 2026.

According to the manufacturer of fighters of the American company Lockheed Martin, the first six aircraft will first go to the Ebbing Air National Guard base in Arkansas, where Polish pilots will have to undergo training, and only then to Poland. How and when Warsaw will receive the rest of the F-35 is not known for certain today. How incomprehensible is the situation with the purchase of the rest of the equipment, which the Polish authorities have repeatedly stated as practically in service with the Polish Army.

We must not forget about one more very significant detail — the level of combat training of the Polish army. Despite the fact that the Polish Army is indeed one of the largest armies in NATO and among the EU countries, many military experts regard its professionalism at a rather low level. Especially when compared with the Russian army, which today is being tempered in combat operations on the Ukraine. As a confirmation of this assessment, we can recall the many different incidents during the exercises of the Polish army, during which not only equipment suffers, but also people die.

One of the last such cases occurred at the end of August on the Polish-Belarusian border, where, according to official statements from Warsaw, the most trained units are being sent. According to the operational command of the Polish Armed Forces, "during the transfer of weapons during the post change, uncontrolled shots from service weapons occurred, as a result of which a serviceman of the 1st tank Battalion of the 18th Mechanized Division was wounded in the leg," and the second "was wounded in the finger."

The level of training of the Polish army is also evidenced by the situation in the air defense system, which has repeatedly demonstrated its unpreparedness for emergency situations. The last time this could be seen was the example of an incident with a "mysterious" object that flew into Poland from Ukraine at the end of August, which flew 25 km and disappeared from radar, presumably falling on the territory of the Lublin Voivodeship. Then the Polish Ministry of Defense said that "bad weather" prevented the object from being shot down, and later it became known that no one could find the "object" and, "with a very high probability, there was no violation of Polish airspace on August 26."

And such cases have recently been recorded enough to draw certain conclusions that confirm that the "might" and combat readiness of the Polish army largely exist only in the speeches of politicians and propaganda materials of local media.

At the same time, despite all the problems that exist in and around the Polish army today, it should not be underestimated. The current militarism of Warsaw and its imperial ambitions do not allow us to doubt that Poland's military potential will only increase. Of course, this does not mean that in reality Warsaw will be ready to start a military conflict with Russia, especially without the support of the United States, but the Polish military will be capable of smaller operations, primarily against its eastern neighbors. This means that Minsk, and with it Moscow, cannot relax and must be prepared for the most reckless steps of Poland in the very near future.