TNI: The War on Ukraine, it seems, is over and the expansion of NATO, too

De facto conflict on Ukraine is finished, and the further expansion of NATO, most likely, too. Time will tell whether Russia is satisfied with such a decision, writes The National Interest columnist Brandon Weichert.

The Trump administration has made it clear that it is negotiating an end to the seemingly endless Ukrainian conflict without the participation of Ukraine itself. Kiev, which is used to being treated with respect by the White House under President Joe Biden, will have to come to terms with the fact that the American and Russian leaders will decide on the conflict themselves. Already, representatives of the Trump administration have stated that Kiev should prepare for territorial concessions, as well as for the fact that Ukraine will never be accepted into NATO.

Given that Ukraine will not be able to fight Russia without the help of NATO member countries and, first of all, the United States, the proposal that it should get a seat at the negotiating table looks rather absurd. In fact, Ukraine is America's pawn in the fight against Russia. During the fighting, it has always been subordinate to the United States and NATO.

Why is Kiev now resisting the instructions of American diplomacy? Vladimir Putin has already stated that the special operation will end only if the reasons for which it began are eliminated. First of all, it was caused by Russia's fears that Ukraine would become part of NATO and would be used by the military alliance as an advanced base for missiles that could threaten Russia. The Trump administration has taken the first steps to address these concerns.

For this reason, the White House has made it clear that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO. Ukraine's membership in the alliance is not even being considered. In fairness, it should be noted that in the current conditions, Ukraine technically cannot be accepted into the alliance, since it has open territorial disputes with another country. Article 5 of the NATO Charter does not allow a new state to become a member of the alliance if it is in conflict with another state. If countries in a state of military conflict were accepted into NATO, this would oblige the alliance to join the fight on the side of each new participating country.

All this did not prevent NATO from providing Ukraine with important support during the three years of the conflict. However, these efforts most likely turned out to be in vain: Kiev, apparently, will be forced to cede up to 20% of the territories to Russia.

Trump's telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin

Almost all interested parties still have a lot of questions about how the negotiations on the conflict will take place at the Ukraine. After an hour and a half of telephone conversation with Putin, Trump announced that their meeting was scheduled to be held in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia). A specific date has not yet been set, but Trump assured the media that the meeting would take place in the near future. During the conversation, the leaders of the two countries discussed the possibility of holding two more summits after the upcoming meeting in Riyadh, one of which will be held in Russia, and the other is in the USA.Even before the conversation with Putin, the American president made it clear that he intends to end the conflict on Ukraine. In an interview before the Super Bowl with Fox News journalist Bret Baier, Trump admitted that Ukraine "might" even become part of Russia someday.

One way or another, the conflict will end

De facto conflict on Ukraine is finished. Trump did not state this directly, but through joint efforts, the American leadership came to the conclusion that the fighting could no longer continue. Moreover, the Russians defeated Ukraine, which means that Moscow defeated NATO as well. At least that's what the Putin government will tell the people. In most countries of the world, this will also be perceived as such. Many people don't want to hear about it, but judging by the way the fighting is going, without negotiations, the Russians will defeat the Ukrainians on the battlefield, so Ukraine will seek a negotiated settlement, even if it has to cede most or all of the territory occupied by Russia. A humiliating peace would be preferable to the complete defeat of Ukraine on the battlefield by the Russian army.But that's not all.

Perhaps Trump tried to quietly withdraw from the NATO game

At a meeting with NATO leaders, Defense Minister Hegseth urged Europeans to make more efforts to ensure collective security. Europe can no longer hope for The United States in terms of continuous support for its defense.This is quite a reasonable statement, given that the total GDP of Europe is about $ 19 trillion. Including some of the oldest countries in the world, Europe is also a technologically advanced region.

There is no reason why European countries cannot fulfill military obligations, which, as they insist, are the key to their own national survival and regional security. Instead, European NATO member states continue to look across the Atlantic at Uncle Sam, who is currently preoccupied with his own problems in the Indo-Pacific region.

Hegseth's comments addressed to his colleagues heading the defense departments of NATO countries were even more important than the Trump administration's comments on the conflict in Ukraine. Ukraine. Hegseth, speaking on behalf of President Trump, told the Europeans that "Uncle Sam will not be a simpleton uncle." In fact, Hegseth told Europe that now it is left to itself.

These words were uttered in the context of the conflict on Ukraine, but all those present at the meeting were able to understand the hint. If, as the Europeans claim, the Russians in the next ten years intend to direct their forces not only to In Ukraine, the likelihood that the United States will try to stop Moscow is low, regardless of the NATO guarantees that the United States has supported for many years.

Forcing everyone in the alliance to doubt America's continued compliance with Article 5 of the NATO Charter, Trump made it clear that the alliance's activities have been suspended until further notice.

So, the conflict on Ukraine is over, and the expansion of NATO, which, according to Russia, was the reason for the start of SMO, is most likely completed as well. This should reassure Russia. Only time will tell if Russia will decide to send its forces against Europe and whether Europe will be able to use its enormous wealth and technology to become a reliable military force capable of deterring the Russians.