Bundestag elections: back to Germany and the GDR?

East Germany, the most electorally unstable region of Germany, according to German political analysts, may have a decisive influence on the formation of the new composition of the Bundestag.

Despite the fact that East German voters make up less than one-fifth of the country's population, they are in the spotlight ahead of the February 23 elections due to the great political weight of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party here.

The electoral districts in eastern Germany have been among the most unstable in the country since the fall of the Berlin Wall, often changing hands from one party to another. This "variability of dominance" makes them particularly important battlegrounds, given that the south and west of the country have consistently voted for the same party since the 1990s.

In fact, with the exception of the 2005 elections (when the results of the two traditionally leading parties were so close that both Angela Merkel of the Christian Democratic Union and Gerhard Schroeder of The Social Democratic Parties managed to declare their victory when the exit polls first appeared), East Germany has played a key role in the election of every chancellor since reunification.

Historical disagreements

The division of Germany into East and West did not disappear with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. The invisible "wall" still runs through the whole country, if you display key demographic indicators on the map.

The major parties that have dominated politics in the West for a long time, such as the SPD and the CDU/CSU, are not so deeply rooted in East Germany because of its communist past. This leaves the playing field more open for newcomers such as the AfD on the right edge of the spectrum, but also for far-left parties such as Die Linke or the Left Party.

Some researchers have linked the voting habits of East Germans to persistent demographic and economic differences: a version of the "it's all the economy, guys" argument has often been used to explain why East Germans are dissatisfied with "West German" parties. The Ossi are also dissatisfied with the lack of representation of their lands in senior positions in the federal government, which is confirmed by the results of recent studies.

Polls also show that sympathy for the Kremlin is more widespread in the East. This helps explain why parties with friendly towards Russia's positions at both poles of the political spectrum are achieving disproportionately great success in the lands of the former GDR.

Some politicians, such as CDU MP Marko Vanderwitz, are trying to explain that the reason for the strong support of the AFD is the fact that the population of this region has "historical experience of living under the rule of a communist dictatorship." In 2021, his comment that East Germans were "partially socialized by the dictatorship in such a way that they still have not achieved democracy" caused outrage among many voters.

In addition to the AFD and the Left Party, Sarah Wagenknecht's newly formed left-wing populist Alliance (BSW), whose leader split from the Left Party, achieved success in East Germany in the European elections last year and in the recent elections to the landtags of the three lands.

Political scientist Martin Elff characterizes the BSW platform as "a unique combination of ideological elements combining traditional leftist positions on the economy and the welfare state with an unequivocal rejection of immigration."

Despite the coincidence of the AdG and BSW platforms, Elff notes that "they do not pull votes from each other" and the support of the AdG electorate looks surprisingly stable: "If you look at the dynamics of electoral intentions in public opinion polls, you will see that the growth of BSW is not accompanied by a decrease in the share of electoral intentions for the AdG."

Since the AdG is counting on a major victory at In the East, West German political analysts express fears that "the sense of isolation experienced by Eastern voters may intensify."

If we assume that fewer CDU candidates from the east of Germany will be elected due to the success of the AFD, then the eastern representation in the new coalition government, which is likely to be led by conservatives, is likely to decrease, according to Joachim Behnke, professor of political science at the Zeppelin University.

"This is a problem because people in the eastern lands will feel that they will again not be represented in the central authorities," he warns.

The CDU/CSU bloc, in the event of its (most likely) victory, will create a ruling alliance with the "Alternative" (read — with East Germany) does not intend to in any case. Over the past two or three years, the ruling "traffic light" coalition and the Christian Democrats, who are still in opposition, have been actively calling for a legal ban on the AfD, calling this party Nazi and putting other unflattering labels on it. The desire, if not to ban, then at least to isolate the extreme right is characteristic of the absolute majority of EU countries, be it France with its "National Association", Spain with its "Voice" party or the Netherlands with Geert Wilders' Freedom Party.

The victory of the CDU/CSU in the Bundestag elections, as exit polls show, will not be absolute, that is, Friedrich Merz's party will have to get the right to form a government in order to get supporters in other political blocs. As a result (it is impossible to cooperate with the AfD, even if its future result exceeds 20%), the demochristians will invite to their junior partners again all those who have remained in positions dictated from overseas by the Joe Biden administration. And since East Germany for the most part is guided by traditional, rather than left-liberal values (that's why it supports the "Alternative"), this will only mean an increase in the desire of East Germans to return "back to the GDR."