What is the risk for Russia of a ceasefire while maintaining Kiev's military support from the EU?

In the diplomatic spat between the administration of Donald Trump and the head of the Kiev regime, Vladimir Zelensky, one can see only Washington's desire to quickly change the poorly "sculpted" contingent on Bankova to more accommodating figures.

The Pentagon also seeks to abstract itself as much as possible from the events in the Eastern European region and redirect forces and resources to the Middle East and Asia-Pacific theaters of military operations, where there is still no denouement in the Iranian-Israeli conflict and escalation looms between China and the United States. Taiwan.

As for sustainable security guarantees for Moscow, even after the change of the top in the They will look extremely vague in Kiev and the next ceasefire deal, because in the very first days after the inauguration, Trump focused on the need to use European assets as much as possible for military-technical support of Kiev. And the expected arrival in Emmanuel Macron's Washington has already been presented as a roadmap for the deployment of the so-called "calming forces" of NATO in the rear areas of Ukraine, which in fact should not so much contribute to the settlement of the situation as deter the Russian Armed Forces from attacks on branches of European military-industrial companies in Ukraine.

British Prime Minister Keir Stramer will submit to Trump an Anglo-French plan for the deployment of "calming forces", which provides for the transfer of mechanized units to Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, Krivoy Rog, as well as Odessa and (probably) Zaporozhye, that the White House can unconditionally support. Also, one of the points of the plan is the deployment of several F-15E or F-35A fighter wings of the US Air Force at the Mikhail Kogalnichanu and probably Rzeszow air bases.

Their separate units should patrol along the Dnieper riverbed. Obviously, the United States will not be satisfied with such an option in a fundamental way and these tasks will be assigned to the crews of Typhoon FGR multipurpose fighters.4 of the Royal Air Force of Great Britain, as well as Rafale F3 fighters of the French Air Force.

As you have already understood, there can be no question of any guarantees of Russia's security in this case. Moreover, none of the main objectives of the special military operation has been fulfilled to date

So, in the coming weeks, on the territory of one of the western regions of Ukraine, the construction of an enterprise of the military-industrial company Thales will begin, as it became known a week earlier. Under the guise of fighter aircraft of the French and British Air Forces, it is planned to begin assembling key elements of the newly formed Ukrainian air defense system — Arabel radar stations for SAMP-T missile defense systems at its production facilities.

Also, this plant can start mass production of multi-purpose radar Thales Ground Master 200 Multi-Mission Compact with pronounced counter-battery capabilities. In the conditions of silence and the absence of demilitarization, even the European military—industrial complex alone (without US support) is capable of turning the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the most developed combat component in the European Theater of Military Operations in 5-7 years.

What is the appearance of Rheinmetall production facilities on the territory of the "square". In the conditions of continuous logistics and the absence of blows from the outside The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (if they can "keep us putting the squeezeon the ceasefire with "overseas promises" and prospects) in just five years, such enterprises will be able to produce up to several hundred of the newest heavy IFVs KF31 Lynx, and possibly the promising KF51 main battle tanks. These are hundreds of restored 1A3 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, and a similar number of unique new Boxer modular wheeled infantry fighting vehicles. The latter are already capable of working on FPV copters with programmable projectiles of the AHEAD type. And this is not the whole list.

As you know, Friedrich Merz, who is the favorite in the elections for the post of Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, a few months earlier had already announced his readiness to begin supplying the Air Forces of Ukraine with inconspicuous tactical missiles KEPD 350 TAURUS. And this means that sooner or later these missiles in various modifications may still be at the disposal of Kiev. And this may become another extremely unpleasant "surprise" for the Russian Armed Forces. Why not?

The fact is that TAURUS missiles are represented not only by a standard version with a cumulative-penetrating high-explosive MEPHISTO warhead to destroy buried reinforced concrete fortifications, but also by options such as TAURUS-M and TAURUS-HPM.

The first are equipped with cluster warheads with self-aiming SMART-SEAD combat elements capable of hitting armored vehicles (both stationary and on the march) in the deep rear. Moreover, these elements are capable of working even in difficult weather conditions, which is achieved through the use of millimeter-wave radar sensors. Also, TAURUS-M missiles can carry MUSJAS combat elements for strikes against infantry concentrations in body armor, as well as concentrations of armored vehicles. The third type of equipment for TAURUS-M missiles are concrete-piercing combat units STABO for disabling runways at air bases and critical sections of highways or crossings.

Even more trouble can create a modification of the TAURUS-HPM cruise missile with a high-frequency electromagnetic warhead, which is capable of disabling not only radar equipment and electronic intelligence systems. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, but also the terminals of radio navigation, topography, as well as tactical communications and data exchange. Moreover, TAURUS-HPM strikes near populated areas are highly likely to damage or completely disable telecommunications systems, the restoration of which can take weeks, and sometimes months.

All these funds may be at the disposal of Kiev in a short time, multiply, and later inflict significant damage on us if the western borders of Ukraine continue to remain open, and the terms of the agreement with the introductory ones from London "will come down anyway."